Anton Gerashchenko è un consulente del ministro dell’interno ucraino e gestisce un canale Telegram di informazione sulla situazione in Ucraina, ricchissimo di informazioni.
E’ “di parte”? Si, lo credo bene. E’ obiettivo? Forse no, ma chi può esserlo in queste condizioni. Propaganda? Anche, ma ben venga, tutto sommato, perché è a favore della vittima (l’Ucraina) non del carnefice (la Russia).
Questo conflitto non ha molti sbocchi possibili e, a conti fatti, realisticamente, quello che ho proposto con una mail al sig. Gerashchenko credo sia il solo sbocco possibile che entrambe le parti possano digerire, sperando che Putin faccia uso di digestivi.
Good morning Mr. Anton Gerashchenko,
I’m among the followers of your Telegram channel Pravda_Gerashchenko_en.
Useless to say that my heart is close to Ukrainian and their heroic defense of their country.
I follow to the extent possible your messages on Telegram.
I have been thinking a lot on how to get out of this dramatic mass, and I do not see many escape solutions, being myself a realistic man.
Apart the ideal solution, that does not appear to be so close for now (Putin disappearing from Earth !!), the only scenary that appears realistic in my mind, to some extent, and imagining that also Vladimir Putin needs an escape solution as soon as possible, is the one shortly described in the attached document.
This preliminary draft proposal imagines that Russia cannot give up the free access to the coast of the Black Sea and Azov Sea, this being a MUST for Russia all allong its entire history. The Putin’s solution was, of course, to integrate the whole Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.
Excluding this outcome, that appears more and more not realistic for Russia, it could become acceptable for Putin to have a free access to the sea, from Rostov to the Crimea peninsula, along a shape of territory facing the sea. The russians are attempting to get military control of this territory by bombing all around, passing from Mariupol, and further.
My idea is to propose a negotiated solution that might keep the practical advantages of the russian idea without subtracting the region to the political control of Kyiv. Imagine the region becoming a sort of “special” region, neutral under the military aspect, a sort of Switzerland region placed among Ukraina, Russia and the sea. Such a region, in a condition of peace between Russia and Ukraina, with a substiantial autonomy, although still within the territory borders of Ucraina, could produce unbelievable economic results, with time, profiting of its relative independence from both Russia and Ukraina, although being the focus of all commerce to the south of the continent for both.
We have to turn the drama of the war into an opportunity, and we must be conscious that also the snake Putin needs an opportunity to say: I’m the winner.
The proposed solution imagines that the region be military free: no weapons on ground, from both parties.
There is a lot of details that such a negotiation must include, that I cannot ever imagine, but the substance is there, and I do not see any other realistic solution, a russian defeat being not realistic, unless with USA in direct conflict with Russia, with all the nuclear consequences.
Having given up the invasion from North, Putin is facing the control of the south-east territories of Ukraina and will not stop unless this is achieved.
It will take long, and costs, and deaths, also for the russians. The only solution is to overturn the face of the omelette, so that Putin achieves more or less what he needs, to feel as a winner, and Ukraina does not loose those territories for ever, although with a different configuration, saving the vital interests of Ukraina as well, hence full access to that territory.
In Europe we have already, since long time, small towns that are completely independent (Monaco, on the France coast, San Marino, in Italy, etc) which are, as a matter of fact, part of the larger territory where they are situated. Donbass is much larger, of course, and owns resources to be exploited that are of interest to both Russia and Ukraina, and the negotiation will have to include statements on how to share these resources, which is not an easy deal, but a solution, again, can be fond, if the exploitation of these resources has Donbass itself as destination, rather then Ukraina or Russia.
I do not think any other track could be followed.
Good luck and success.
Franco Puglia – Italy
DRAFT PROPOSAL TO STOP FIGHTING IN UKRAINA
The military operations in Ukraina have produced a dramatic amount of damages and lost lives on both parties to the conflict, and will have to stop, before or later, so let’s try to stop them now. This draft proposal is a reasonable basis to meet the fundamental interests of the parties to this conflict.
a) Immediate stop of fire from both parties to this conflict, keeping their respective positions as long as the peace agrement reaches its final conclusion with the signature of the parties. During this period the support of the people on ground with food, beverages and medical aid will be permitted, excluding any other supply aimed to reinforce the military capacity of both.
b) Mutual statement of the common historical origin of the russian and ukrainian people, and will to rebuild, with time, a climate of friendship compromised for long by this conflict..
c) Acceptance, from Russia, of the territorial integrity and independence of the Ucraina Republic, only excluding the Crimea peninsula, being recognised by Ucraina as being part of the Russian Federation, for historical and cultural reasons.
d) Modifications in the territorial organization of the Republic of Ucraina, establishng a special district in the south-est region of Ucraina, the so called Donbass region, with a substantial self-governmente autorithy, although still under the political sovereign authority of the Kiev government over this region, as well as over all other territories originally falling under the Kiev authority. This new region of Ucraina will extend all along the coast of the Black Sea and Azov See, to reach the Crimea peninsula, with the west-northern border to be defined in detail in the attachements to this agreement.
The Odessa region is non considered part of this territory.
This region, from now onward simply colled Donbass, will be set free from armies either of Ucraina and Russia origin, producing, as a matter of fact, a sort of neutral ground, where weapons will have to disappear and will not be used, as a consequence, against any party involved in this conflict. Both Russia and Ucraina undertake not to introduce in the future any military stuff and soldiers in Donbass, unless for joint mutuallly agreed defense from an external aggression.
e) Owing to the special status of this region, the Russian Federation will have a permanent free right of transit for non military people and mobiles from the russian territory to Crimea, and back, to make easier the transit in the southern region of Ucraina, between Russia and Crimea. This new status of the Donbass region will be assured and defended, as long as deemed necessary, by an international interposition military force, under the control of the United Nations, which are part and warranty to this agreement.
f) The Republic of Ucraina will keep its independent military autonomy, with no limitation of use of self defending infrastructures, either on ground, aerial or over the sea, excluding an integration in the atlantic alliance Nato, therefore undertaking not to host on its territory any Nato military infrastructure, however reserving the right of possibly asking Nato support solely to reinforce the defense of its own territory, in case of attack, excluding any coperation with Nato to support any military mission directed ouside its own territory.
g) Russia declares that will not try to interfere in the future in the internal political status of Ucraina, recognising as lawful the present Ucraina government.
h) Mutual undertaking to establishing permanent channels of cooperation at diplomatic level and on economic interchange aimed to the constant improvement of russian-ukrainian relationships.
i) This agreement requires the immediate withdrawl of the russian military forces inside the russian territories, leaving the Ukraina territory. It also requires the cooperation of the Kiev government to promote the gradual cancelation of the european sanctions against Russia, finalized to a gradual recovery of normal diplomatic and commercial relationship among all involved contries.